Solar Max 2012-2013

Solar Max

2012 ~ 2013

(Solar Cycle 24)

Just as earth has cycles which we call seasons, the sun's energy output also changes on
a roughly 11-year basis. We call these changes the solar cycle.
We are now four years into a new solar maximum period. During the last solar minimum, there were few
magnetic storms on the sun, sunspots were rare, and geomagnetic disturbances here on earth
were nearly nonexistent. Aurora watchers had to travel to the polar regions to see
the Northern Lights. However, change is coming. We are again approaching solar maximum.

In late 2007, a new sunspot appeared on the sun, signaling the end of our quiet period.
This sunspot had a reversed polarity magnetic field. According to NASA's solar
physicist David Hathaway: "New solar cycles always begin with a high-latitude, reversed polarity sunspot,"
explains Hathaway. "'Reversed polarity' " means a sunspot with opposite magnetic polarity
compared to sunspots from the previous solar cycle. 'High-latitude' refers to the sun's grid of latitude
and longitude. Old cycle spots congregate near the sun's equator. New cycle spots appear higher, around
25 or 30 degrees latitude." Full article may be found here.

As far back as 2006, solar scientists began predicting that our next solar maximum would
be one of the strongest yet. "This week researchers announced that a storm is coming--the
most intense solar maximum in fifty years. The prediction comes from a team led by Mausumi Dikpati
of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). 'The next sunspot cycle will be 30% to 50%
stronger than the previous one,' she says. If correct, the years ahead could produce a burst of solar activity
second only to the historic Solar Max of 1958." From Science @ NASA. Our last solar
minimum, however, was longer and deeper than usual. Could this mean a quieter solar max period?

So what can happen during a strong solar maximum? Sunspots increase and harbor more energy.
At times, this energy is released in the form of coronal mass ejections (CMEs). A CME
consists of plasma from the sun itself -- electrons and protons -- with an accompanying
magnetic field. When these charged particles strike the earth's magnetosphere, they travel
down the magnetic field lines to the poles, colliding with atoms in our atmosphere along the way. These
collisions can create a display of the aurora borealis. The energized ejected material can also strike satellites,
causing drag and damage to electronic circuitry. GPS units and telecommunications may be disrupted.
In a severe geomagnetic storm, astronauts and high-altitude jet passengers can receive
higher than normal doses of radiation. Power grids on earth may fail as a result of the massive
influx of energy. The aurora borealis can sometimes be seen as far south as Mexico.
For an excellent article on the possible effects of a severe geomagnetic storm, see
this page on Wikipedia.

For incoming storm warnings or to find out if you can see the aurora in your area, see:

SOLAR HAM has great information, graphs, video and live feed that is updated
every two minutes.
My own aurora borealis site also lists sources for space weather updates and solar storm warning notifications.
Tools are included to let you calculate whether the aurora is currently visible in your location.

Current space weather conditions:

Solar X-rays:
Geomagnetic Field: >

From n3kl.org

Were you born during a period of solar minimum or solar maximum? Find out with this nifty tool from SpaceWeather.com.
You can also use it to correlate important Earth history events like stock market crashes, the Mets winning,
and other anomalies with the 11-year solar cycle. Dates go back to the 1700s.
For entertainment purposes only!

Perhaps in the next solar maximum period, we will see glories such as this:

Aurora panorama photo, above, courtesy of and copyrighted by LeRoy Zimmerman

Would you like to see and photograph the aurora live? Please visit:
Andy Keen's site, The Aurora Hunters© If you found this information useful, please consider
a small donation to defray the costs of site maintenance and hosting. Thank you.

This page updated 27 January 2012.
Following the Sun since 2008. Copyright 2008-2012.
Background music: "The Cloud" -- soundtrack "Star Trek - The Motion Picture"

Author: Sue Evans